El Nino Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate

List of Contributors vii

Acknowledgments xiii

Preface xv

Section I: Introduction

1. Introduction to El Nino Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate 3
Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai

2. ENSO in the Global Climate System 21
Kevin E. Trenberth

Section II: Observations

3. ENSO Observations 41
Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Severine Fournier, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda

4. ENSO Diversity 65
Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Jong-Seong Kug, Ken Takahashi, and Michael J. McPhaden

5. Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications 87
Julien Emile-Geay, Kim M. Cobb, Julia E. Cole, Mary Elliot, and Feng Zhu

Section III: Theories and Dynamics

6. Simple ENSO Models 121
Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, and Licheng Geng

7. ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry 153
Soon-Il An, Eli Tziperman, Yuko M. Okumura, and Tim Li

8. ENSO Low-frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions 173
Alexey V. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Aaron F. Z. Levine, and Clara Deser

Section IV: Modeling and Prediction

9. ENSO Modelling: History, Progress and Challenges 201
Eric Guilyardi, Antonietta Capotondi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Sulian Thual, and Andrew T. Wittenberg

10. ENSO Prediction 227
Michelle L. L'Heureux, Aaron F. Z. Levine, Matthew Newman, Catherine Ganter, Jing-Jia Luo, Michael K. Tippett, and Timothy N. Stockdale

Section V: Remote and External Forcing

11. ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability Outside the Tropical Pacific 249
Jong-Seong Kug, Jerome Vialard, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jin-Yi Yu, and Matthieu Lengaigne

12. The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO 267
Shayne McGregor, Myriam Khodri, Nicola Maher, Masamichi Ohba, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Samantha Stevenson

13. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing 289
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, and Axel Timmermann

Section VI: Teleconnections and Impacts

14. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections 311
Andrea S. Taschetto, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Malte F. Stuecker, Dietmar Dommenget, Karumuri Ashok, Regina R. Rodrigues, and Sang-Wook Yeh

15. ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections 337
Janet Sprintall, Sophie Cravatte, Boris Dewitte, Yan Du, and Alexander Sen Gupta

16. Impact of El Nino on Weather and Climate Extremes 361
Lisa Goddard and Alexander Gershunov

17. ENSO and Tropical Cyclones 377
I-I Lin, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Julien Boucharel, Savin Chand, Phil Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Bin Wang, Ping Chang, Tim Li, and Fei-Fei Jin

18. ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts 409
Neil J. Holbrook, Danielle C. Claar, Alistair J. Hobday, Kathleen L. McInnes, Eric C. J. Oliver, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew J. Widlansky, and Xuebin Zhang

19. ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems 429
Patrick Lehodey, Arnaud Bertrand, Alistair J. Hobday, Hidetada Kiyofuji, Sam McClatchie, Christophe E. Menkes, Graham Pilling, Jeffrey Polovina, and Desiree Tommasi

20. ENSO and the Carbon Cycle 453
Richard A. Betts, Chantelle A. Burton, Richard A. Feely, Mat Collins, Chris D. Jones, and Andy J. Wiltshire

Section VII: Closing

21. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-Perspectives, and Outlook
Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, and Wenju Cai

Glossary 485

Index 491

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• Geofísica

acknowledgment section; alex sen gupta; greenhouse forcingwenju cai; stockdale section v; challenges eric guilyardi; tropical cyclonesi-i lin; clara deser iv; strong volcanic eruptions; trenberth section; agus santoso; malte f