Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty
-15%
portes grátis
Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty
A Practical Guide for Developers
de Neufville, Richard; Geltner, David
John Wiley and Sons Ltd
04/2018
256
Mole
Inglês
9781119106494
15 a 20 dias
Provides a revolutionary conceptual framework and practical tools to quantify uncertainty and recognize the value of flexibility in real estate development This book takes a practical "engineering" approach to the valuation of options and flexibility in real estate.
Foreword xiii Author s Preface xvii Acknowledgement xxi About the Companion Website xxiii 1 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: The Basic Procedures and Concepts Underlying Spreadsheet Valuation Constitute the Springboard to our Approach of Analyzing Flexibility Under Uncertainty 1 1.1 Why the Focus on the Discounted Cash Flow Model? 2 1.2 Structure of a Discounted Cash Flow Spreadsheet 3 1.3 The Cash Flow Projection 5 1.4 Discount Rate 7 1.5 Market Value and Forward ]Looking (Ex ]Ante) Analysis 7 1.6 Backward ] Looking (Ex ]Post) Analysis 9 1.7 Conclusion 9 2 Economics of the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Model: Understanding the Discount Rate is Critical 11 2.1 Choice of Discount Rate 11 2.2 Differences between Discount Rate, Opportunity Cost of Capital, and Internal Rate of Return 13 2.3 Net Present Value 14 2.4 Relationship between Discount Rate, Growth Rate, and Income Yield 15 2.5 Relationship between Discount Rate and Risk 18 2.6 Conclusion 19 3 Future Scenarios Matter: We Need to Recognize that Future Projections are Uncertain 21 3.1 The Standard Discounted Cash Flow Model Appears to be Deterministic 21 3.2 We Live in a World of Uncertainty 23 3.3 Discounted Cash Flow Pro Forma Cash Flows Are Expectations 24 3.4 Flexibility and Options 26 3.5 Conclusion 26 4 Scenario Analysis: Future Scenarios can Significantly and Surprisingly Affect the Present Value 27 4.1 Discounted Cash Flow Scenario Analysis 27 4.2 Scenarios Affect Value 29 4.3 Flexibility Has Value 30 4.4 Conclusion 32 5 Future Outcomes Cover a Range of Possibilities: We Can Describe Uncertainties in Real Estate Using Probability Distributions of Possible Future Outcomes 33 5.1 Distribution of Future Outcomes 34 5.2 Quantifying Input Distributions 34 5.3 Distributions of Outcomes Differ from Distributions of Inputs 38 5.4 Flaw of Averages 39 5.5 Conclusion 40 6 Simulation of Outcomes: Simulation is a Practical, Efficient Way to Explore Uncertainty and to choose between Alternative Strategies for Managing it 41 6.1 Generating Scenarios 41 6.2 Real Estate Simulation in a Nutshell 42 6.3 Simulation Is an Efficient Process 43 6.4 Number of Trials 44 6.5 Conclusion 45 7 Modeling Price Dynamics: Using Pricing Factors to Model the Dynamics of Real Estate Markets 47 7.1 Pricing Factors 47 7.2 Random Walks 49 7.3 Real Estate Pricing Factor Dynamics 51 7.4 Conclusion 52 8 Interpreting Simulation Results: Target Curves and Scatterplots can be used to Graph the Distribution of the Sample Output 53 8.1 Target Curves 53 8.2 Comparing Target Curves 57 8.3 Value at Risk 57 8.4 Scatterplots 57 8.5 Conclusion 59 9 Resale Timing Decision: Analysis: Let s See what happens when we apply the Tools of Flexibility Analysis to a Classical Investment Decision: when to sell the Property 61 9.1 The Resale Timing Problem 62 9.2 Extending the Time Horizon of the Discounted Cash Flow Model 62 9.3 IF Statements 63 9.4 Trigger Value for Stop ]Gain Rule 64 9.5 Value of Example Stop ]Gain Rule 64 9.6 Conclusion 68 10 Resale Timing Decision: Discussion: Let s think about Additional Insights we can get from Simulation 69 10.1 Sensitivity Analysis 69 10.2 When to Use the Stop ]Gain Rule 70 10.3 Implications of Flexibility for Property Valuation 71 10.4 Conclusion 72 11 Development Project Valuation: This Chapter Looks at Valuation of Development Projects From an Investment Perspective, Considering Uncertainty, Flexibility, and Time ]to ]Build 73 11.1 Time ]to ]Build Difference between Development Projects and Existing Assets 74 11.2 Lower Opportunity Cost of Capital for Construction Costs 75 11.3 Illustrative Example 77 11.4 Residual Value of Development Land 78 11.5 Investment Risk in Development Project 79 11.6 Conclusion 80 12 Basic Flexibility in Development Projects: The Most Basic Flexibility in Real Estate Development is the Option to Choose whether and when to Build 83 12.1 Review of Call (and Put) Options 84 12.2 Land as a Call Option on Development 85 12.3 Drivers of Option Value 85 12.4 A Practical Example of a Call (and Put) Option 86 12.5 Flexibility and Scenario Analysis for Development Projects 88 12.6 Conclusion 90 13 Option Dichotomies: We Introduce a Typology of Flexibility in Development Projects 91 13.1 Three Dichotomies for Thinking Generally about Development Options 91 13.2 Defensive versus Offensive Options 92 13.3 Options On and In Projects 93 13.4 Timing Options versus Product Options 94 13.5 Conclusion 94 14 Product Options in Development: We Discuss Three types of Product Options 95 14.1 Concept of Base Plan 95 14.2 Product Expansion Flexibility 96 14.3 Product Mix Flexibility 98 14.4 Conclusion 98 15 Timing Options in Development: Now we Turn to the Types of Timing Options 99 15.1 Project Start ]Timing Flexibility (The Delay Option) 99 15.2 Project Production Timing Flexibility 100 15.3 Modular Production Timing Flexibility 102 15.4 Phasing Timing Flexibility 103 15.5 Types of Phasing 103 15.6 Recognizing Defensive and Offensive Options in Simulation Results 104 15.7 Conclusion 107 16 Garden City: An Example Multi ]Asset Development Project: We Present the Traditional DCF Valuation Spreadsheet Model for the Example Development Project We use in the Rest of Book 109 16.1 Overview of Multi ]Asset Development Project 110 16.2 Structure of a Realistic Multi ]Asset Spreadsheet Pro Forma 111 16.3 Cash Flows for the Example Pro Forma 113 16.4 Temporal Profile for Base Case 115 16.5 Expected Economics of the Garden City Project 116 16.6 Conclusion 118 17 Effect of Uncertainty without Flexibility in Development Project Evaluation: We Re ]analyze the Garden City Project by Reflecting Uncertainty Without Flexibility 119 17.1 Modeling Uncertainty for the Multi ]Asset Development Project 120 17.2 Generating Random Future Scenarios 122 17.3 Outcomes Reflecting Uncertainty for the Multi ]Asset Development 123 17.4 Effect of Different Probability Inputs Assumptions 127 17.5 Conclusion 129 18 Project Start ]Delay Flexibility: We Model the Value of the Most Basic and Widely Available Development Project Option 131 18.1 Project Start ]Delay Option 132 18.2 Option Exercise Decision Rule 132 18.3 Defining Profit in the Decision Model 134 18.4 Value of Start ]Delay Flexibility in the Garden City Project 134 18.5 Conclusion 138 19 Decision Rules and Value Implications: We Further Explore the Option to Delay the Project Start 139 19.1 Simple Myopic Delay Rule 140 19.2 Trigger Values 140 19.3 Value Implications of the Decision Rules 141 19.4 Effect of Trigger Values (Start or Delay Bias) 143 19.5 Review the Meaning of Flexibility Value 145 19.6 Conclusion 146 20 Modular Production Timing Flexibility: We Explore the Timing Option to Pause and Restart the Project Any Time After its Commencement 147 20.1 Modular Production Timing Flexibility 148 20.2 Modeling the Modular Production Option 148 20.3 Value of Modular Production Timing Flexibility 150 20.4 Effect of Trigger Values (Bias toward Pause or Continue) 152 20.5 Effect of Combining Start ]Delay and Modular Production Delay Flexibility 154 20.6 Conclusion 157 21 Product Mix Flexibility: This Chapter Presents the Option to Change Product Mix, and Examines the Effect of Volatility on Option Value 159 21.1 Product Mix Flexibility 160 21.2 Modeling the Product Mix Option 160 21.3 Value of Product Mix Flexibility 161 21.4 Effect of Combining Product Mix Flexibility and Timing Options 165 21.5 Effect of Correlation in the Product Markets on the Value of Product Mix Flexibility 167 21.6 Effect of Volatility on the Value of Flexibility 169 21.7 Conclusion 172 22 Project Phasing Flexibility: We Show How to Model and Evaluate the Delay Flexibility Inherent in Project Phasing 173 22.1 Modeling the Sequential Phase Delay Option 173 22.2 Modifying the Garden City Project Plan 174 22.3 Project Economics 177 22.4 The Delay Decision Model 178 22.5 Exploring the Value of Project Phasing Flexibility 179 22.6 Conclusion 182 23 Optimal Phasing: We Now look at Adding Phases, Delineating Phases, and Distinguishing them from Expansion Options 183 23.1 Effect of Increasing the Number of Phases 184 23.2 Principles for Optimal Phasing 186 23.3 What Is the Difference between a Phase and an Expansion Option? 190 23.4 Conclusion 191 24 Overall Summary: We summarize the Main Takeaway Points from this Book 193 Appendix 197 Glossary 213 Acronyms and Symbols 219 Index 221
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Provides a revolutionary conceptual framework and practical tools to quantify uncertainty and recognize the value of flexibility in real estate development This book takes a practical "engineering" approach to the valuation of options and flexibility in real estate.
Foreword xiii Author s Preface xvii Acknowledgement xxi About the Companion Website xxiii 1 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: The Basic Procedures and Concepts Underlying Spreadsheet Valuation Constitute the Springboard to our Approach of Analyzing Flexibility Under Uncertainty 1 1.1 Why the Focus on the Discounted Cash Flow Model? 2 1.2 Structure of a Discounted Cash Flow Spreadsheet 3 1.3 The Cash Flow Projection 5 1.4 Discount Rate 7 1.5 Market Value and Forward ]Looking (Ex ]Ante) Analysis 7 1.6 Backward ] Looking (Ex ]Post) Analysis 9 1.7 Conclusion 9 2 Economics of the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Model: Understanding the Discount Rate is Critical 11 2.1 Choice of Discount Rate 11 2.2 Differences between Discount Rate, Opportunity Cost of Capital, and Internal Rate of Return 13 2.3 Net Present Value 14 2.4 Relationship between Discount Rate, Growth Rate, and Income Yield 15 2.5 Relationship between Discount Rate and Risk 18 2.6 Conclusion 19 3 Future Scenarios Matter: We Need to Recognize that Future Projections are Uncertain 21 3.1 The Standard Discounted Cash Flow Model Appears to be Deterministic 21 3.2 We Live in a World of Uncertainty 23 3.3 Discounted Cash Flow Pro Forma Cash Flows Are Expectations 24 3.4 Flexibility and Options 26 3.5 Conclusion 26 4 Scenario Analysis: Future Scenarios can Significantly and Surprisingly Affect the Present Value 27 4.1 Discounted Cash Flow Scenario Analysis 27 4.2 Scenarios Affect Value 29 4.3 Flexibility Has Value 30 4.4 Conclusion 32 5 Future Outcomes Cover a Range of Possibilities: We Can Describe Uncertainties in Real Estate Using Probability Distributions of Possible Future Outcomes 33 5.1 Distribution of Future Outcomes 34 5.2 Quantifying Input Distributions 34 5.3 Distributions of Outcomes Differ from Distributions of Inputs 38 5.4 Flaw of Averages 39 5.5 Conclusion 40 6 Simulation of Outcomes: Simulation is a Practical, Efficient Way to Explore Uncertainty and to choose between Alternative Strategies for Managing it 41 6.1 Generating Scenarios 41 6.2 Real Estate Simulation in a Nutshell 42 6.3 Simulation Is an Efficient Process 43 6.4 Number of Trials 44 6.5 Conclusion 45 7 Modeling Price Dynamics: Using Pricing Factors to Model the Dynamics of Real Estate Markets 47 7.1 Pricing Factors 47 7.2 Random Walks 49 7.3 Real Estate Pricing Factor Dynamics 51 7.4 Conclusion 52 8 Interpreting Simulation Results: Target Curves and Scatterplots can be used to Graph the Distribution of the Sample Output 53 8.1 Target Curves 53 8.2 Comparing Target Curves 57 8.3 Value at Risk 57 8.4 Scatterplots 57 8.5 Conclusion 59 9 Resale Timing Decision: Analysis: Let s See what happens when we apply the Tools of Flexibility Analysis to a Classical Investment Decision: when to sell the Property 61 9.1 The Resale Timing Problem 62 9.2 Extending the Time Horizon of the Discounted Cash Flow Model 62 9.3 IF Statements 63 9.4 Trigger Value for Stop ]Gain Rule 64 9.5 Value of Example Stop ]Gain Rule 64 9.6 Conclusion 68 10 Resale Timing Decision: Discussion: Let s think about Additional Insights we can get from Simulation 69 10.1 Sensitivity Analysis 69 10.2 When to Use the Stop ]Gain Rule 70 10.3 Implications of Flexibility for Property Valuation 71 10.4 Conclusion 72 11 Development Project Valuation: This Chapter Looks at Valuation of Development Projects From an Investment Perspective, Considering Uncertainty, Flexibility, and Time ]to ]Build 73 11.1 Time ]to ]Build Difference between Development Projects and Existing Assets 74 11.2 Lower Opportunity Cost of Capital for Construction Costs 75 11.3 Illustrative Example 77 11.4 Residual Value of Development Land 78 11.5 Investment Risk in Development Project 79 11.6 Conclusion 80 12 Basic Flexibility in Development Projects: The Most Basic Flexibility in Real Estate Development is the Option to Choose whether and when to Build 83 12.1 Review of Call (and Put) Options 84 12.2 Land as a Call Option on Development 85 12.3 Drivers of Option Value 85 12.4 A Practical Example of a Call (and Put) Option 86 12.5 Flexibility and Scenario Analysis for Development Projects 88 12.6 Conclusion 90 13 Option Dichotomies: We Introduce a Typology of Flexibility in Development Projects 91 13.1 Three Dichotomies for Thinking Generally about Development Options 91 13.2 Defensive versus Offensive Options 92 13.3 Options On and In Projects 93 13.4 Timing Options versus Product Options 94 13.5 Conclusion 94 14 Product Options in Development: We Discuss Three types of Product Options 95 14.1 Concept of Base Plan 95 14.2 Product Expansion Flexibility 96 14.3 Product Mix Flexibility 98 14.4 Conclusion 98 15 Timing Options in Development: Now we Turn to the Types of Timing Options 99 15.1 Project Start ]Timing Flexibility (The Delay Option) 99 15.2 Project Production Timing Flexibility 100 15.3 Modular Production Timing Flexibility 102 15.4 Phasing Timing Flexibility 103 15.5 Types of Phasing 103 15.6 Recognizing Defensive and Offensive Options in Simulation Results 104 15.7 Conclusion 107 16 Garden City: An Example Multi ]Asset Development Project: We Present the Traditional DCF Valuation Spreadsheet Model for the Example Development Project We use in the Rest of Book 109 16.1 Overview of Multi ]Asset Development Project 110 16.2 Structure of a Realistic Multi ]Asset Spreadsheet Pro Forma 111 16.3 Cash Flows for the Example Pro Forma 113 16.4 Temporal Profile for Base Case 115 16.5 Expected Economics of the Garden City Project 116 16.6 Conclusion 118 17 Effect of Uncertainty without Flexibility in Development Project Evaluation: We Re ]analyze the Garden City Project by Reflecting Uncertainty Without Flexibility 119 17.1 Modeling Uncertainty for the Multi ]Asset Development Project 120 17.2 Generating Random Future Scenarios 122 17.3 Outcomes Reflecting Uncertainty for the Multi ]Asset Development 123 17.4 Effect of Different Probability Inputs Assumptions 127 17.5 Conclusion 129 18 Project Start ]Delay Flexibility: We Model the Value of the Most Basic and Widely Available Development Project Option 131 18.1 Project Start ]Delay Option 132 18.2 Option Exercise Decision Rule 132 18.3 Defining Profit in the Decision Model 134 18.4 Value of Start ]Delay Flexibility in the Garden City Project 134 18.5 Conclusion 138 19 Decision Rules and Value Implications: We Further Explore the Option to Delay the Project Start 139 19.1 Simple Myopic Delay Rule 140 19.2 Trigger Values 140 19.3 Value Implications of the Decision Rules 141 19.4 Effect of Trigger Values (Start or Delay Bias) 143 19.5 Review the Meaning of Flexibility Value 145 19.6 Conclusion 146 20 Modular Production Timing Flexibility: We Explore the Timing Option to Pause and Restart the Project Any Time After its Commencement 147 20.1 Modular Production Timing Flexibility 148 20.2 Modeling the Modular Production Option 148 20.3 Value of Modular Production Timing Flexibility 150 20.4 Effect of Trigger Values (Bias toward Pause or Continue) 152 20.5 Effect of Combining Start ]Delay and Modular Production Delay Flexibility 154 20.6 Conclusion 157 21 Product Mix Flexibility: This Chapter Presents the Option to Change Product Mix, and Examines the Effect of Volatility on Option Value 159 21.1 Product Mix Flexibility 160 21.2 Modeling the Product Mix Option 160 21.3 Value of Product Mix Flexibility 161 21.4 Effect of Combining Product Mix Flexibility and Timing Options 165 21.5 Effect of Correlation in the Product Markets on the Value of Product Mix Flexibility 167 21.6 Effect of Volatility on the Value of Flexibility 169 21.7 Conclusion 172 22 Project Phasing Flexibility: We Show How to Model and Evaluate the Delay Flexibility Inherent in Project Phasing 173 22.1 Modeling the Sequential Phase Delay Option 173 22.2 Modifying the Garden City Project Plan 174 22.3 Project Economics 177 22.4 The Delay Decision Model 178 22.5 Exploring the Value of Project Phasing Flexibility 179 22.6 Conclusion 182 23 Optimal Phasing: We Now look at Adding Phases, Delineating Phases, and Distinguishing them from Expansion Options 183 23.1 Effect of Increasing the Number of Phases 184 23.2 Principles for Optimal Phasing 186 23.3 What Is the Difference between a Phase and an Expansion Option? 190 23.4 Conclusion 191 24 Overall Summary: We summarize the Main Takeaway Points from this Book 193 Appendix 197 Glossary 213 Acronyms and Symbols 219 Index 221
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